09.02.2026
Energy Club business community Vice President Ivan Grygoruk appeared on Apostrophe TV with an expert analysis of the critical state of the Ukrainian power system. In his commentary, he detailed the consequences of the attack on the Burshtyn TPP, explained the logic behind enemy attacks on civilian infrastructure, and provided a forecast regarding the duration of blackout schedules for residential consumers.
We invite you to watch the video recording of the conversation and read the full text transcript of the expert’s key points.
Host: The energy situation has significantly deteriorated following a recent Russian attack that effectively disabled the Burshtyn TPP. I would like to remind you that this is a key facility for the water and heat supply of the city of Burshtyn. However, this station is not only of regional importance — its condition affects the power system of the entire country.
We will talk about these challenges in more detail. On the eve, Vitali Klitschko reported that the capital is preparing for difficult days, complicated by another wave of frost. Sub-zero temperatures are expected until next Thursday. Joining us is Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of Energy Club. Mr. Ivan, welcome!
Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of Energy Club: Greetings! Good health to the studio.
Host: Let’s start with the situation at the Burshtyn TPP. Besides the regional consequences, what is the significance of the proper operation of this station for the overall energy system of Ukraine? The situation there is difficult, there is damage, and the consequences are obvious. What is your analysis?
Ivan Grygoruk: Burshtyn TPP is indeed one of the key thermal power plants not only in the region but in the entire power system of Ukraine. Its installed capacity corresponds to slightly more than one nuclear power unit (over 1000 MW). Therefore, it significantly affects the state of the entire integrated system.
In addition to being a source of guaranteed capacity, it actively participates in balancing the power system. Currently, this is necessary to reduce the number of hourly or emergency blackouts, especially in central and western Ukraine.
Host: Please explain how the situation at the Burshtyn TPP affects other regions, specifically Kyiv?
Ivan Grygoruk: The impact is direct. The consequences are felt both in the western part (Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Zakarpattia regions) and in the central part, including Kyiv. This is due to the fact that Burshtyn TPP provides the guaranteed capacity used, among other things, to actually balance the power system. The loss of such a large capacity, equivalent to a nuclear unit, is felt by everyone.
Host: Do we have the physical capability to at least partially cover this lost capacity? We often hear about electricity imports, but can partners provide us with the necessary volumes? What part does import cover, and are there alternatives?
Ivan Grygoruk: Import is a predictable withdrawal of electric power from abroad. In our case, we are talking more about emergency assistance from partners. Of course, we are limited by the capacity of cross-border interconnectors. It is possible to partially replace the losses, but the problem is not only in generation (whether it’s Burshtyn TPP or other affected facilities). The question is also in the transmission and distribution system, which also suffered from shelling: is there a physical possibility to transmit this electricity from the west to the central regions of Ukraine.
Host: Let’s talk about numbers in the context of blackouts. There are opinions circulating online that the capital will only have electricity for one and a half to two hours a day. Is this our new reality? Where is the most difficult situation now, and what should Kyiv expect amidst the frosts?
Ivan Grygoruk: The capital is no longer just waiting; it is living in this mode — consumers have access to electricity for one and a half to two hours a day. As for heat, as you know, the left bank of Kyiv was partially left without heat supply due to destruction at local CHPs.
The most difficult situation now is in Kharkiv, Sumy, and other large frontline cities whose infrastructure is being systematically destroyed to make people suffer. I want to emphasize: these attacks are directed exclusively at civilian infrastructure and the population, which is a war crime. This is not a purely military operation. The planning of such strikes is carried out by Russian civilian power engineers. The military is involved in this process at most by 15-20% — they only choose the timing and the means of destruction. Everything else is planned by specialized RF specialists. This is effectively genocide.
Host: So, it is Russian civilian power engineers who analyze and indicate the targets?
Ivan Grygoruk: They don’t just analyze; they model strikes on infrastructure and their consequences. This requires specific knowledge of the power system and the housing and utility sector (heating, water supply, sewerage). They use special software to model the scale of destruction and the impact of the consequences on the civilian population. They determine the sequence and zoning of strikes to cause maximum damage.
Host: What is currently the priority for our power engineers regarding restoration? What does it look like physically — is it “patching holes” or a full-scale repair?
Ivan Grygoruk: Currently, the priority is restoring power via backup or emergency/temporary schemes. Regarding generation, especially the combined heat and power plants (CHPs) that provide cities with heat, it is impossible to restore them in a day, two, or even a month. Given the large-scale destruction and current weather conditions, full restoration, God willing, will happen by the next autumn-winter period. Not only generation was hit, but also heating networks; in some places, building systems have frozen.
What is being done now is stabilizing the power system and providing consumers with at least a minimum of 1.5–2 hours of power per day through emergency/temporary schemes. In current conditions, this is considered priority restoration. The deficit is significant, so such strict blackouts are a necessity to maintain the integrity of the integrated power system.
Host: How is our nuclear generation working? It was reported that NPPs were forced to reduce power. Does this mean the enemy will not be able to completely shut down the country as long as nuclear power is running?
Ivan Grygoruk: Reducing power or shifting units into “hot shutdown” is a standard protocol to ensure nuclear and radiation safety. This is done to prevent man-made disasters over significant territories.
Nuclear generation is working, but the main question is: where to deliver this power? The enemy hits substations and the transmission system. Therefore, the problem is complex. But I want to note that a colossal number of people are involved in restoration. In addition to operational personnel, over 50,000 specialists are currently engaged in emergency repair work. There has been no such scale of work even during World War II.
Host: A final short question. The President mentioned a possible “energy truce.” Do you believe in this? And what is your forecast for blackouts in the near future?
Ivan Grygoruk: Blackouts will last not for a week or a month. I think they will continue throughout this entire year under any scenario. Even if we achieve peace, the power system will require a long time for restoration, so hourly schedules will remain. This is my optimistic forecast. We must prepare for this.
As for the truce, I am skeptical about it. We see that Russia used the time to prepare for pinpoint strikes, conducting a detailed analysis of our power system’s state. Therefore, we should rely on the work of our power engineers, not on agreements with the enemy.
