Power Market Crisis — Falling Prices and a Threat to the 2025/2026 AWP

Ukraine’s electricity market is currently experiencing a crisis. Over the past few weeks, spot prices on the day-ahead and intraday markets have plummeted by 40% compared to August, even though the supply and demand balance has remained unchanged. This suggests the drop may be artificial.

Market participants, including traders, suppliers, and balancing groups, have already suffered losses totaling several billion hryvnias. This price crisis is triggering a chain reaction: consumers are massively terminating fixed-price contracts, payment discipline is deteriorating, and companies are unable to fulfill their obligations to generators.

This situation poses a direct threat to the funding of electricity generation and the stable passage of the 2025/2026 autumn-winter period (AWP), for which resource accumulation was a priority set by state authorities. Further ignoring the situation could lead to a systemic energy crisis.

Energy Club is convening a virtual meeting for market participants to openly discuss the causes of this artificial crisis, assess its consequences, and consolidate a market position for an appeal to the Ministry of Energy, NEURC, and other state bodies.

Key topics for discussion:

1. What is the real reason for the abnormal price drop on the DAM/IDM? An analysis of the factors.
2. Chain reaction: How does price dumping affect contract fulfillment (particularly with JSC “NNEGC “Energoatom”), payment discipline, and the financial stability of companies?
3. Threat to the AWP: Does the current situation undermine resource accumulation for winter and jeopardize the country’s energy security?
4. Urgent steps: What immediate decisions should the Ministry of Energy and NEURC make to stabilize the market, especially regarding limiting the volume of state-owned generation sold on the spot market and implementing anti-dumping mechanisms?
5. Legal protection: How can market participants be protected when faced with mass consumer cancellations of long-term contracts due to force majeure market conditions?

Moderator

Maksym Nemchynov

Vice President of Energy Club, former Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine

Speakers:

• Bogdan Koval, Head of Legal Department, Energy Link Trade LLC
• Olha Babii, Advisor to the Head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Member of the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (2019-2024)
• Oleksandr Volkov, Head of the Settlement Administration Department at NPC Ukrenergo
• Representative of the Ukrainian Energy Exchange