03.12.2025
Ukraine is entering this winter with a significantly higher level of readiness than in the three previous wartime seasons. Preparations have been systemic, not symbolic.
Stockpiles of critical equipment, backup solutions for generation, transmission, and distribution, as well as a large-scale program for the engineering fortification of energy facilities—all of this creates a potential for resilience that did not exist before. Planning approaches have become more structured: past experiences have been accounted for, multiple scenarios have been developed, and cross-sector coordination has been strengthened.
This does not imply an absence of threats, but it does mean that the state and operators are entering the season in better positions than at any time since the start of the full-scale war.
What Has Changed in the Protection of Energy Facilities
A crucial shift has been the substantial expansion of protective infrastructure. A significant number of high-power transformers now have concrete shelters capable of withstanding kamikaze drones and fragmentation effects. According to official information, over 70% of such transformers at “Ukrenergo” substations currently have the appropriate level of engineering protection.
The scale of these works is also notable. Protection now covers more facilities than in previous years and is being implemented comprehensively, taking into account both the engineering component and cooperation with defense structures.
There are already results: in several instances, new fortifications have already saved scarce equipment following multiple consecutive attacks. Currently, the Agency for Restoration has taken an additional 120 energy facilities under protection, for which 6 billion UAH has already been allocated in the budget’s reserve fund. The defense involves a complex, comprehensive approach, including air defense, physical protection, the availability of backup equipment, and coverage by mobile fire groups.
New Types of Threats
However, the aggressor is also adapting and adjusting its aerial strike tactics. The enemy has shifted from the mass “carpet” attacks of 2022 to precision strikes on specific objects.
Recently, the frequency of concentrated drone and missile attacks on single energy system objects has increased. At the same time, systematic shelling of frontline and border regions continues, leading to the destruction of both large power plants and energy infrastructure.
If the 2022–2023 season was characterized by massive, somewhat chaotic shelling of large facilities across the country, then since the spring of 2023, targeted concentrated attacks aimed at “cutting off” specific regions from the grid have begun.
In 2024–2025, another phase was added—constant terror in frontline and border regions, as well as targeted attacks on key substations linked to the power output of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The enemy concentrates attacks of dozens of drones or missiles on a single energy facility. Such tactics complicate defense, as even well-fortified objects cannot always withstand several consecutive hits.
The Dnipro Hydroelectric Station cascade also remains in the risk zone—only one of the six hydroelectric power plants is currently fully operational. This is a substantial blow to the system’s maneuvering capacities. Thermal generation suffered dozens of attacks in October alone, and natural gas extraction capacities have also been affected.
All these factors increase the risks for getting through the winter. Suffice it to say that since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Ukrainian energy system has lost over 18 GW of capacity due to occupation, destruction, and damage.
Decentralized Solutions as the Foundation of Resilience
Despite these risks, the situation is not catastrophic. The systemic trend toward decentralization continues. Enterprises and communities are implementing solar power plants, energy storage systems, mobile turbines, and microgrids.
Critical infrastructure facilities have become particularly active. Specifically, water utilities are massively switching to Renewable Energy Sources (RES) to guarantee uninterrupted water supply during regular power outages. The installation of photovoltaic modules allows for basic power supply; some water utilities have already installed solar power plants (SPPs), while others are developing project documentation for RES usage.
Such initiatives need to be scaled. Investments in decentralized generation, the formation of buffer fuel stocks, the construction of new stations, and the completion of integration with the EU energy system must become part of strategic planning, not just a response to short-term threats.
In other words, Ukraine needs a transition from a “reactive” to a proactive strategy, stimulating investment through public-private partnerships and attracting funding from International Financial Institutions (IFIs). This will allow not only for finding answers to current challenges but also for laying the foundation for sustainable energy in the long term.
Against the backdrop of massive losses, the pace of commissioning new power plants does not yet meet needs. Over two years, 1.5 GW of new maneuvering capacities have been put into operation. However, this is half of the required 3 GW of maneuvering generation being built under the conditions of full-scale war. Moreover, the new capacities meet today’s challenges—this is decentralized generation, which is less vulnerable to constant air attacks.
Energy imports also play a major role. Due to the destruction of gas extraction facilities, a need for significant external purchases arose, and this issue is being resolved. Part of the funds to cover these costs has already been secured thanks to international support, while financing is being sought for the rest.
Finally, electricity imports from the EU are currently a powerful stabilizing factor. After synchronization with the European ENTSO-E network, Ukraine gained the ability to quickly access reserve volumes. In October alone, 360,000 MWh of electricity were imported, which allowed for the rapid balancing of the system after another wave of attacks on energy facilities.
Cold Winter, Hot Front
Ukraine’s energy system operates today under extremely difficult conditions. Yet, at the same time, it has become more flexible, better adapted to hybrid threats, and technologically better equipped than ever in previous years.
Throughout the war, the energy system was on the verge of a blackout only once—in the autumn of 2022. This resilience is the result of the titanic work of engineers, dispatchers, repair crews, managers, and partners who are building the line of energy defense together.
The winter of 2025–2026 will be a test. But this winter is no longer about fear and despair, but about experience, organization, and strategic endurance. Ukraine is holding the energy front. And it continues to strengthen it every day.
