18.11.2024
Today, Russian gas supplies to Austria were cut off. Only futures reacted to the news, rising by 2.7% to 47.49 Euros/MWh, or in metric terms, about 500 Euros per thousand cubic meters of natural gas, which is six times less than the price during the so-called gas crisis in the EU.
The reason for the current price change is the increase in the risks of stable gas supplies against the backdrop of falling temperatures. In fact, it is expected that the situation will stabilize in a week, since there are no threats to the actual interruption of natural gas supplies: supply sources are diversified, and storage facilities are over 90% full. Of course, the enemy will try to conduct active information operations in his usual manner to launch the so-called “price rally”, but he will not be able to do this: the era of hybrid aggression is coming to an end.
The importance of such an event is best analyzed in light of the past, returning to the prerequisites for concluding the contract between the Soviet Union and Austria.
It all started with the construction of the main pipeline “Dolyna – Uzhgorod – Derzhkordon”, which in 1967 connected the gas transportation systems of Czechoslovakia and the USSR.
The next active action in the Kremlin’s energy expansion plan was the introduction of a group of troops from the Warsaw Pact countries to Prague. The result of such a military operation was the strengthening of the communist regime in Czechoslovakia. In less than a year, in 1968, the 20-kilometer interconnector with Baumgarten was completed. This was actually the turning point when the Soviet Union began the gradual weakening of the democratic part of the European continent by providing access to cheap natural gas. Unfortunately, this bait was so tempting that the communist regime managed to obtain financial loans from Austria for the purchase of pipe products and equipment in exchange for natural gas that came through Czechoslovakia. This first barter contract only strengthened the policy of energy expansion – already in 1969, tripartite negotiations were held between the USSR, the Italian company Eni and the German concern Ruhrgas. However, physical supplies to Germany and Italy began in October 1973. Thus, in five years, a model of the Soviet Union’s influence on the economies of European countries was deployed.
As we can see, the era of using energy resources as a weapon to solve geopolitical problems is coming to an end. Incidentally, the first time such a hybrid strategy was used by the Soviet dictator was immediately after the end of World War II. At that time, despite the acute shortage in the domestic market, the export of oil and oil products to Finland and Bulgaria was opened. As a result, Finland made concessions and undertook to refuse to join NATO and remain de jure a non-aligned state. This Stalinist barrier was broken only after the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine – on April 4, 2023, Finland joined NATO and became the 31st member of the Alliance.
