13.03.2026
The operation by the United States and Israel against Iran has become a serious test for Europe’s energy strategy and political cohesion. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has already provoked a 75% jump in gas prices in Europe, and the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, Qatar, has suspended its production following the Iranian attacks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s LNG and oil supplies pass, has forced the market to reconsider all risks. Against this background, russia is trying to exploit the crisis to intensify energy blackmail, hoping that due to fuel shortages and high prices, Europe will begin to pressure Ukraine. Whether it is possible to lift sanctions on russian oil and how the situation in global markets will affect prices at Ukrainian gas stations — Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of Energy Club, spoke about this on the “Kyiv24.news” TV channel.
The text of the conversation follows:
Host: Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of the Energy Club business association of energy companies, is on the line with us. Mr. Ivan, we welcome you.
Ivan Grygoruk: Greetings to you and the viewers.
Host: Mr. Ivan, we were actually quoting US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. He stated that the administration is considering the possibility of lifting sanctions on russian oil to stabilize global markets. In your opinion, how likely is this option, and what could be the consequences of such a step?
Ivan Grygoruk: The option is probable, and indeed it has already been officially voiced that the lifting of sanctions applies to those tankers that are already at sea. Accordingly, recipients are allowed to buy this oil in countries such as India. It must be said that India previously had a 25% share of russian oil in its purchase structure. After the introduction of sanctions, it actually reduced imports under direct contracts, but new suppliers appeared in its structure from countries such as Singapore, Azerbaijan, Egypt, and others, who actually sold the same russian oil through typical shadow schemes involving a change of flag.
But I want to say that right now for the Trump administration, the main issue is the domestic price of fuel in the United States. And they will do everything possible to lower it.
Host: Mr. Ivan, the Financial Times writes that Trump actually has limited opportunities to restrain oil prices, which have now gone up. What could be the maximum price per barrel, and what conditions must be met for it to decrease?
Ivan Grygoruk: In fact, opportunities exist. Firstly, increasing domestic production in the US. Trump has repeatedly stated this — “Drill, baby, drill.” Secondly, working with OPEC countries, in particular with Saudi Arabia, by changing the logistics of oil supplies via a pipeline through the port of Yanbu in the Red Sea. Thirdly, de-mothballing US national oil reserves.
Regarding the price — we are currently seeing high volatility. The conflict in the Middle East is a threat to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, although the main buyers of this oil and gas are China, which has a significant strategic reserve of oil and gas for about two years, Indonesia, and other countries of the Pacific region. If Qatar indeed stops shipping liquefied natural gas for a long time, and oil tankers are forced to go around Africa — this automatically adds a logistical component and time to the price. But I don’t think the price will grow indefinitely. The market will find a healthy price balance anyway.
Host: And regarding gas? We see a figure of 75% growth. And there are reports that russia is already “rubbing its hands” and saying: “Well, are you freezing? Let’s reach an agreement on Ukraine, and we’ll give you gas.” This is direct blackmail. How prepared is Europe for such a scenario?
Ivan Grygoruk: This is an absolutely conscious strategy of the russian federation. They have been waiting for this moment. russia is now trying to use an artificial deficit and show that Europe cannot survive without their pipeline gas. We see the activity of Orban, who is constantly promoting narratives about the need to lift energy sanctions.
The Kremlin’s goal is to provoke social discontent in Europe due to high utility bills, so that European politicians become more compliant on issues of supporting Ukraine. This is “gas hunger” that they are trying to organize. But Europe in recent years has made a huge step in diversifying supplies, receiving liquefied gas from the USA, Australia, Trinidad and Tobago, Algeria, Nigeria, etc. Yes, it’s difficult now because reserves are low after winter, but the situation with supplies is not critical.
Host: And the last question that concerns all Ukrainians. Against the backdrop of these global upheavals, does a price of 100 hryvnias per liter of fuel at gas stations threaten us? Because prices have already started to climb.
Ivan Grygoruk: I understand the concern; the market always reacts to stress. But I want to tell you: first of all, this is a question for the work of our Antimonopoly Committee and the Regulator. Because the fuel we are currently using was not purchased yesterday at new prices in the Persian Gulf countries. These are old stocks.
Right now in the European Union, I have spoken with colleagues, prices have also jumped, but there the Regulators have already started investigations into the inadequate price hikes. If our state institutions work effectively, there should not be 100 hryvnias, at least for gasoline. One must understand that the maximum deficit forecast is only a forecast, and the share of the import balance of oil and liquefied gas from the Persian Gulf to the European Union is not critical. Therefore, one should not succumb to the panic that they are trying to stir up for various reasons.
