03.09.2025
On July 25, 2025, the NEURC (National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission) by Resolution No. 1133 increased the marginal prices for DAM (Day-Ahead Market) and IDM (Intra-Day Market) during evening hours: from UAH 9,000 to UAH 15,000/MWh for the evening peak intervals of 17:00–23:00 (the decision came into effect at the beginning of August).
At first glance, the market took this calmly: the average monthly indicator for August is almost no different from July and is even lower than August-2024. But if you look specifically at the evening peak, the picture is different: the new limit allowed prices to form higher than they would have been with the old “ceiling.” We estimated this with a simple “what if the limit wasn’t increased” calculation for the hours of 18:00–23:00.
How We Calculated It:
We took the hourly DAM prices for August 2025. For the hours of 18:00–23:00, we replaced all values above UAH 9,000/MWh with UAH 9,000 (i.e., “as if the limit had not been increased”). We then compared the resulting level with the actual one—for the entire month and separately for the peak hours.
What We Found:
Why does the “monthly average” mask the effect? Night and day hours lower the average and offset the evening surges. However, it is precisely during the peak intervals that the increased “ceiling” allowed prices to settle at levels that were previously capped by the UAH 9,000 limit.
Conclusion: The impact is real, and claims of “no impact” are a manipulation. For consumers, this means more expensive evening hours: under the old limit, the average price at the peak would have been lower by UAH 1,452/MWh, and the overall monthly average by about UAH 363/MWh. Statements about “no impact” rely solely on the monthly average and ignore the price increase specifically when demand is highest.
