31.12.2024
In 2024, the global energy map of the world has undergone significant changes. At the same time, before determining the main factors of influence, it is worth first of all outlining the very concept of energy security – this is a sufficient number of energy resources that are transported through a stable infrastructure to transparent markets, to which a solvent consumer has equal access.
Resources
The global portfolio of energy resources, in terms of oil, can be considered practically balanced, since the global consumption level of 102.8 million barrels per day is covered by production of 102.6 million barrels. This indicator indicates market balance, despite military tensions on the Arabian Peninsula and the Middle East. In this context, it is appropriate to mention that in the third quarter of this year, Iran repeatedly resorted to various public statements, expecting, in particular, changes in the global oil market. In fact, the situation with demand and supply was balanced due to the growth of oil production in the United States and the decrease in demand from Chinese consumers. Thus, the American oil industry for the second year in a row demonstrated a record growth in black gold production by 2% to 13.2 million barrels per day. At the same time, China reduced oil consumption by 10%, which made it possible to reduce the growth rate of global demand to 1%, compared to the previous year. In addition, the Chinese market reduced the volume of Russian oil consumption by 7%, replacing it with black gold from Saudi Arabia. This trend occurred due to the increase in the cost of delivering Russian raw materials against the background of the sanctions, which is not enough to bleed the aggressor’s economy, which mostly sells its black gold on the markets of China and India. Unfortunately, the aggressor managed to export about 4.8 million barrels of oil worth $320 million per day in 2024.
Given the current level of activity in the oil market, in 2025 we should expect a further increase in the volume of black gold production to 104.5 million barrels per day. Taking into account this forecast, it is possible that next year there will be a global oil supply surplus. At the same time, it is worth paying attention to the indicators of the enemy’s oil production industry and preventing violations of international law, in particular UN Resolution No. 2375 of September 11, 2017, which imposed a ban on the supply of oil and petroleum products to North Korea.
Global demand for natural gas increased by 2.4% in 2024 and returned to the pre-pandemic level. At the same time, the driving force of growth was the Asia-Pacific region and liquefied natural gas, the market share of which increased to 40%.
It is noteworthy that Qatar, the USA, and Australia remain the leaders in the supply of liquefied natural gas, while the EU and Asia remain key sales markets.
At the same time, there is a rather dangerous trend of increasing gas production by the aggressor, by more than 9%, compared to the previous year. At the same time, next year, the aggressor may increase the volume of liquefied natural gas production to 40 million tons, which once again indicates the urgent need to introduce new sanctions. This trend is associated with Russia’s attempt to increase natural gas supplies to China. At the same time, total Russian gas exports to the EU via all routes increased to 32 billion cubic meters, compared to 28.3 billion cubic meters in 2023, when they fell to their lowest level since the 1970s. Despite this increase, Russian gas supplies to Europe remain significantly lower than in previous years. In comparison, in 2018-2019, the annual gas flow to Europe reached 175-180 billion cubic meters.
The global coal market in 2024 was characterized by stable demand and supply, but consumption remained at the previous year’s level, amounting to approximately 8.7 billion tons, which contributed to a record increase in carbon dioxide emissions to 41.6 billion metric tons. At the same time, the Russian coal industry in 2024 faced serious financial difficulties, which was reflected in its main indicators. First of all, the aggressor reduced the volume of coal production by 4.4% in annual terms, which determined the reduction of export supplies and the loss of sales markets. For example, one of the largest importers of Russian coal in Taiwan, Taiwan Cement Corporation (TCC), completely stopped cooperation with the aggressor. In general, the income of the Russian coal industry decreased by 97%, and the vast majority of mining companies suffered losses.
Concluding the resources section, it is worth paying attention to uranium mining and nuclear fuel production in view of the development of low-carbon energy sources. This year, there was an increase of 3% in uranium mining volumes to the level of 50 thousand tons. Despite the fact that Kazakhstan is the largest uranium producer, the aggressor continues to control more than 40% of the world’s uranium enrichment. Next year, Russia’s share in this segment may decrease by developing its own capacities in the USA and the EU, as well as attracting investments in the fields of Canada and Namibia.
Infrastructure
In the past year, many significant infrastructure projects in the energy sector were implemented, which influenced the global energy industry and contributed to the development of sustainable energy systems in the world, in particular:
As we can see, in 2024, the implementation of large-scale energy projects around the world demonstrated the growing interest in sustainable, integrated and decarbonized energy. These initiatives have significantly strengthened the position of renewable energy sources, liquefied natural gas, hydrogen and innovative technologies in the global energy system.
Markets
Speaking of quotes on the global oil market, there was a downward trend in prices throughout 2024, for example, in early January one barrel of Brent was sold for $76.3, and by the end of December it was already 3% lower. Given the forecast for oil production growth in 2025, it is possible to assume a further decline in quotes to the level of $65 per barrel.
The opposite situation is with natural gas prices. In 2024, natural gas prices in Asia and North America increased by approximately 50% and are likely to continue to grow in the first quarter of next year due to active depletion of storage reserves. At the same time, the level of growth in the price of liquefied gas will be determined by seasonal demand and storage capacity.
In 2024, coal prices remained relatively stable. For example, in Australia, prices remained at around $203 per ton.
The price situation on the global primary energy market led to the fact that during the current year the electricity market in the European Union underwent the following changes.
First, after significant volatility of quotations in the previous two years, electricity prices decreased in 2024, which is associated with stable gas supplies, full gas storage facilities and favorable weather conditions. Thus, in Germany, France, Italy and Spain, average electricity prices were 30-40% lower than in 2023. This trend was influenced, in particular, by the slowdown in the EU’s economic growth, for example, demand for electricity decreased by 5%.
Secondly, the share of renewable energy sources (wind, solar, hydro and bioenergy) exceeded 50% in many EU countries, including Germany, Spain and Denmark. This was also facilitated by a new investment-friendly pricing model for energy produced from alternative sources. This approach created the conditions under which the European Union completed large-scale investment projects in solar energy, ensuring over 50% of electricity production from renewable sources in many member states. In fact, such changes influenced the fact that the average price of electricity in the EU for household consumers during the current year was about 12.67 UAH/kWh, which is equivalent to approximately 0.29 EUR/kWh at an exchange rate of 43.85 UAH per 1 EUR.
Blackouts
Despite the development of grid infrastructure and the decentralization of power systems, blackouts have occurred in various parts of the world this year.
The most common cause is natural disasters, in particular In the United States, powerful hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico region caused damage to the power infrastructure, especially in the states of Louisiana and Texas. At the same time, in Southeast Asia, typhoons caused power outages in the Philippines and Vietnam. The stability of power supply this year was affected by extreme heat, for example, in the EU and Asia, abnormal heat waves led to increased electricity consumption for air conditioning, which caused local outages in Italy, France and India.
Secondly, short-term disconnection of consumers from electricity was caused by cyberattacks, for example, in the USA there were outages due to external influence on the IT infrastructure of electricity network operators.
Thirdly, technical malfunctions and wear and tear of networks. For example, the Republic of South Africa continued to suffer from large-scale blackouts due to the inability of the state-owned power company Eskom to ensure stable operation of the networks. Periodic “load-shedding” (planned outages) became a part of everyday life. A similar situation occurred in Pakistan, in early 2024 a large-scale failure in the national power grid left more than 200 million people without electricity. The stability of energy networks was also affected by the sufficiency of primary energy carriers, for example, in Cuba there was an energy crisis due to a shortage of fuel and wear and tear of thermal power plant nodes.
Fourthly, military conflicts. One such example, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East region has affected the power systems of Syria, Lebanon and partly Israel, causing power outages.
Fifth, high demand and unpreparedness for a full energy transition from fossil to renewable energy sources. In the first quarter of 2024, due to cold weather and delays in the operation of renewable energy sources (for example, insufficient wind for wind farms), short-term blackouts occurred in certain regions, such as Germany and Poland.
War crimes of the Kremlin
In the past year, Russia continued to commit war crimes, carrying out 13 massive attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities. According to various estimates, the enemy used more than 1,200 missiles to carry out these crimes alone, causing damage of $56.2 billion. One of the most large-scale attacks occurred on August 26, 2024, when the aggressor used 236 drones and missiles. In general, the Kremlin’s war crimes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure were aimed at creating a humanitarian crisis, undermining the economy, and reducing the defense capability of our state. Despite these actions, thanks to international support, the prompt restoration of damaged facilities, and the resilience of our fellow citizens, Ukraine’s energy system continues to function even in the face of major challenges.
Russian war crimes must be condemned both at the international (International Criminal Court, International Court of Justice, European Court of Human Rights) and national levels.
Sanctions pressure on the aggressor
Next year, sanctions pressure on the aggressor should be significantly increased sion for several reasons.
First of all, the aggressor is the greatest threat to global energy security, since in particular it actively uses complex schemes of oil transshipment at sea, “shadow flotillas” and hides the final destination of cargoes to avoid sanctions. At the same time, unfortunately, not all countries or companies comply with sanctions due to difficulties in checking supply chains and the lack of strict control.
Along with this, China, India, Turkey and other countries of the Global South have not joined the sanctions regime and enjoy reduced prices for Russian resources, providing the aggressor with financial opportunities for war against the democratic world.
Obviously, there is insufficient pressure associated with Russia’s adaptation to sanctions and the lack of a unified global approach to countering its energy expansion. Increased control and the establishment of secondary measures of influence on companies and countries that help the aggressor circumvent restrictions can increase the effectiveness of sanctions.
In addition, the role of the aggressor in the world’s energy security should be reduced next year, in particular by imposing sanctions and introducing new political restrictions on the nuclear fuel market.
TOP-25 forecasts for 2025
Energy security in 2025 will remain a multidimensional challenge and will depend on geopolitical stability, adaptation to climate change and the pace of innovation. Countries that invest in diversifying energy sources, decarbonizing and strengthening infrastructure will have an advantage in ensuring the stability of energy supply.
