19.09.2025
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure continue, forcing energy workers to overcome new challenges daily and citizens to prepare for a difficult winter. How is the country resisting energy terror? What new strikes is the enemy launching, and how is the energy system adapting to constant threats?
Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of the Energy Club, spoke about this and much more on Hromadske Radio with Andriy Kulykov.
The conversation covered:
Ivan Grygoruk shared a professional analysis of the current situation, debunked the myth of an inevitable total blackout, and explained why Ukraine’s unique experience in protecting and restoring its energy system has already become invaluable to the entire world.
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We present the full text of this important conversation for your attention.
Andriy Kulykov: You are about to hear a conversation with Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of the Energy Club. He is an analyst and expert in the energy sector. Recently, we have been paying increasing attention to the fact that Russians are carrying out massive strikes specifically on objects of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. We have survived several winters, and it seemed that we had learned our lessons, that nothing could scare us. But how much do these targeted strikes indicate that we can still be put in an even more difficult position?
Ivan Grygoruk: Good day. Yes, of course, we have been under massive, systematic strikes from the Russian Federation for more than a year, especially concerning critical infrastructure, energy, and transport. Each time, every winter, every year, we face new challenges. The enemy does not repeat itself. Unfortunately, more than 80% of energy facilities have been attacked during this time, but thanks to the professionalism and coordinated work of our energy workers, established logistical connections, and the help of international partners, all destruction and damage are being restored. This is a continuous process; it does not stop. Every day we have a new challenge, a new situation. We have gained vast experience over three and a half years, and this affects the coordination of work not only among specialists in the energy sector but also with the State Emergency Service, various municipal services, the Armed Forces of Ukraine—meaning air defense—municipal authorities, and so on. In short, the protection of critical infrastructure, especially energy and transport, is constantly improving. What is different compared to previous years are the strikes on the gas transmission system, its facilities, and underground gas storage sites. The gas storage facilities themselves are practically unreachable for the enemy, but the infrastructure responsible for injecting and withdrawing gas suffers. They have also begun to attack elements of the interconnectors that provide us with gas imports from our partner countries. This is something that did not happen last year. Such attacks began from the moment gas transit to the European Union was halted. And thus, new targets opened up for our enemy—the Russian Federation.
Andriy Kulykov: Mr. Grygoruk, you said that the enemy does not repeat itself. Of course, our methods and means of protection are also improving. However, the Russians have far more resources for attacks than we have for defense. What new things can Ukraine offer here? What do our partners provide, and what are Ukrainians inventing themselves?
Ivan Grygoruk: In reality, we have very strong support from the European Union and various countries around the world, as well as the USA, regarding equipment and direct funds that are accumulated in the Energy Restoration Fund. This allows us to both receive necessary equipment and purchase more scarce items. There is also coordinated work between different owners of generation or distribution systems. To be clear, these are different offices, different owners, different accounting, and so on. By the way, even during the war, no one has canceled financial reporting, and issues of inventory accounting and taxation remain. That is, one organization cannot simply transfer something to another organization, another business entity. Now, they have learned to deal with these challenges as well. Enterprises in different spheres of state and private ownership and with different owners are now cooperating, primarily focusing on restoring destroyed infrastructure and organizing temporary or emergency power supply schemes for our consumers—first and foremost, the population and working industry—and only then do they resolve issues of reporting and accounting. This is one of the innovations. There are also new, effective systems for protecting critical infrastructure, energy, and transport facilities. I will not talk about them, but they exist. Our facilities have become more protected and less vulnerable, at least from fragmentation damage.
Andriy Kulykov: Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of the Energy Club, on Hromadske Radio. Mr. Grygoruk, a chronic problem of the Ukrainian energy sector has been the crisis of non-payments. Now, of course, many people have become poorer; besides, some direct a lot of money to help the Armed Forces of Ukraine, while others simply cannot afford to pay. What is the situation here? How much has it worsened? And to what extent are the energy producers and suppliers you mentioned willing to tolerate this? And how much can we expect the long-justified increase in prices for household energy services?
Ivan Grygoruk: The problem of non-payments has always been particularly acute. Of course, it began to grow actively during COVID, and then during the active phase of the war with the Russian Federation. And indeed, debts are growing and accumulating. The most affected are the supply companies and enterprises that perform the function of public service obligation suppliers. These are effectively the enterprises that provide a non-commercial price for household consumers. Due to non-payments, their cash gap is always growing, and a deficit of working capital arises. Forecasting financial procurements for each of the enterprises responsible for preparing for the autumn-winter peak—whether they are restoration or repair companies, or those securing fuel, gas, or coal, or other types of fuel, including nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants—is extremely difficult in wartime. The system operator, which has obligations under the “green” PSO, is also affected. So this problem really exists. How is the issue being resolved? Again, thanks to international partners. For example, system operators like Ukrenergo always interact with international credit institutions, and recently the Naftogaz group attracted 500 million euros for gas purchases, but debts in the energy markets are accumulating. By the way, partly due to these debts, gas procurement is not proceeding as quickly as we would like this year. However, considering that gas consumption is low because large consumers (industrial enterprises) use almost no gas today, the domestic production plus the planned import volume of 4.5 billion cubic meters set by the government will be enough for the population and municipal energy sector to get through the autumn-winter peak. I already mentioned that the enemy is now attacking interconnectors, like recently in the Odesa region, one of the international gas connections was shelled. It’s called the vertical corridor, through which we receive gas from Azerbaijan, though the flow is small, about 400,000 cubic meters per day. But this is not a huge problem because our imports currently amount to 1.5 billion cubic meters per month. At the end of October, the connection with Poland will be suspended for three days to increase its cross-section; the capacity will increase to 6.3 million cubic meters of gas per day instead of the current 5.5 million. So, the situation is under control, and preparation for the autumn-winter period is not under threat.
Andriy Kulykov: Mr. Grygoruk, when the full-scale Russian invasion began in February 2022, people, including myself, had completely different ideas about how to help the energy system. I remember there was a call to “unplug everything”. Then it was explained that if everyone unplugs en masse, it’s almost worse than when everyone plugs in en masse. So, we’ve learned a few things, but what are the main rules now for our ordinary listeners and for a layman like me sitting with you at the microphone?
Ivan Grygoruk: Well, you are no longer a layman; you understand things at a professional level.
Andriy Kulykov: At the level of a professional layman.
Ivan Grygoruk: The main thing is really the daily peak loads in the morning and evening; it’s better to limit your electricity consumption then, during the normal operation of the energy system. In general, we understand that as we get closer to winter (late autumn, December-January), the enemy will intensify its massive strikes on the energy system. Often, some “specialists” claim that everything will end for us then and cascading systemic failures will occur, which people call a blackout. I will tell you that the enemy will not be able to provide us with such a dark future because, after 3.5 years of heavy shelling, the energy system remains stable and sufficiently flexible, even now. However, there may be outages for a day or two. The simplest advice for people is if you have power banks, please keep them charged. For example, I constantly charge them and my phone in the evening to get through the night and be able to work somehow during the day. Besides, in 2022, together with the State Agency on Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving, we developed a detailed guide for ordinary citizens and condominiums (OSBB). I think the guide is available on the Agency’s website. In fact, the most accessible life hack is to have simple thermoses, so people can heat water, tea, or coffee, or even a first course, and it will stay warm for a long time, like six to ten hours. I mentioned 2022 because if you remember, we had no electricity, no heating, and no water back then.
Andriy Kulykov: I remember. My personal record without electricity was 76 hours straight. What was yours?
Ivan Grygoruk: It was about the same for me. I don’t have water heating; it’s electric, so I opened the windows to make the apartment warmer than it was outside.
Andriy Kulykov: Mr. Grygoruk, when it comes to energy sources—hydro, green energy, thermal power plants—does the enemy strike all of them equally, or does it choose a specific type of generation?
Ivan Grygoruk: They know our generation structure perfectly well because most of the large-scale energy infrastructure was built during Soviet times. The main rule back then—and this applied to all energy and industrial facilities, not just power plants and grids or major logistics hubs—was that every project that was completed and used to build a facility in Ukraine was eventually sent to a departmental archive in Moscow. Therefore, the enemy had all the blueprints and, consequently, knew all the locations perfectly well. Of course, they have less information about how these facilities were modernized or about new construction during the years of independence. They strike what they know. But I want to repeat once again that it is practically impossible to bring our energy system to a stalemate through shelling. Yes, there will be outages, and after some time, backup and temporary supply schemes will be provided, but people will still have light and heat. We hope for the best. And as for preventing a worse scenario, the energy workers and relevant services are constantly working on that.
Andriy Kulykov: When the fighting ends and it’s time to restore the industry to the scale we need, what will be the first priority, in your opinion as an expert? What are your predictions?
Ivan Grygoruk: The first priority, of course—everyone talks about restoration, but I would say modernization or new construction. First—the grids. Based on the significant destruction we already have, we have major losses in the distribution of electricity, thermal energy, wastewater, and water supply to the consumer. Therefore, it’s about modernizing the grids, automating processes that allow for a more effective and rapid response to various challenges and emergencies that may arise in the operation of any given grid. This is fundamental because no matter what you build—some new power plant or something else—without a grid, we cannot deliver electricity or other benefits to the consumer. So, the first thing is definitely the grids. Next, we need to consider the economic component. There is a commercial price for the product, and the weighted average cost of a kilowatt, a kilocalorie, or a cubic meter of water should be as low as possible, not high. This is a matter of forming the country’s optimal energy mix, because electricity is at the core of everything. Without electricity, the pumps that supply water or manage wastewater, or municipal transport, do not work.
Andriy Kulykov: By the way, in the winter of 2022, it was a surprise for me that the artesian water wells weren’t working. It just never occurred to me that they also need electricity.
Ivan Grygoruk: They also need pumps. It’s like that with everything. Therefore, our energy mix must be optimal. It has historically happened that we have a lot of nuclear generation. It currently operates comfortably at 50-60% of the production structure, but the most attention needs to be paid to rotating capacity, which provides inertia and ensures the flexibility of the energy system’s operation. What does this mean? It means that when an emergency situation occurs at any generating facility, the dispatcher has time to replace it with another one. This is a normal protocol. There are reserve capacities that are commanded to switch on in case of an emergency, and they reach their declared capacity and replace the one that has shut down or gone into repair for some reason, or perhaps its protections were triggered, causing the unit to fall out of balance. If there is no rotating capacity in reserve (also called “energy on the shaft”), but only impulse power like from storage systems, this situation significantly complicates the dispatcher’s job in managing the energy system and maintaining the 50 Hz frequency, which is our standard. That is why guaranteed rotating generation is so important. No one in the world has invented anything better to this day. Storage systems are good, but they work momentarily and not for a long time. They constantly need to be recharged. So, we are talking about thermal power plants, and I’m not saying they have to be coal-fired. Currently, worldwide, guaranteed reserve capacity is provided by various gas-fired thermal power plants—semi-peak and peak. Optimally, these are semi-peak plants that operate for at least 5,000 hours a year. They are then cost-effective because they can operate in all modes of the energy system, not just as a backup power source. And modular gas-generating power units, also known as distributed generation, are also rotating capacity. They are of lower power, up to 20 MW, but they are still rotating generation. And they can successfully make money for communities.
Andriy Kulykov: Mr. Grygoruk, I have a favorite question that I always ask and always get a disappointing answer to, so I’ll ask you. Waste-to-energy plants, peat, and tidal power stations. Are they promising for us?
Ivan Grygoruk: In Ukraine?
Andriy Kulykov: Yes, specifically in Ukraine. I know that in some countries, tidal power stations do work, but I think we only had one, or something like that?
Ivan Grygoruk: Yes, we had one. You could say they were pilot projects, first attempts. As for tidal, I don’t know.
Andriy Kulykov: Well, if you don’t know, then it’s clear the prospects are slim.
Ivan Grygoruk: Success can really only be predicted based on the results of a developed feasibility study. You have to look at the tidal force in the Black Sea today. The Black Sea, as you know, is turbulent, but the tidal force, at what depth, how far from the shore, the choice of optimal technology and equipment—these are all questions for a feasibility study. Regarding peat: we once had a company called Ukrtorf. It was engaged in extracting peat as a furnace fuel. It is biomass and has a high calorific value when burned. A few years ago, a successful study was conducted in Ukraine on the possibility of operating large coal-fired TPPs with biomass admixtures. You know that peat is almost impossible to extinguish, God forbid, of course.
Andriy Kulykov: Well, as a resident of Kyiv and the Kyiv region, I know that.
Ivan Grygoruk: All Kyivans know this. So, why not? It’s biomass, and it has the opportunity and prospect to develop. The main thing is to have the infrastructure built. Regarding biomass, we all know that it is economically efficient for the fuel to be produced within 30 km of the combustion source. This is the optimal range from a logistics cost perspective. If it’s more, you have to do the math, and it usually turns out to be inefficient. Therefore, these are more localized options, like TPPs or CHPs on biomass located not far from peat extraction sites. The situation is very similar with projects for the management and disposal of municipal solid waste, and special attention must also be paid to waste morphology and the environmental component.
Andriy Kulykov: Mr. Grygoruk, you are one of the leading figures of the Energy Club. It is an authoritative association of energy specialists and people involved in electricity production, supply, and so on. How much interest do you feel now in the Ukrainian experience from foreign partners? That is, not only the assistance you mentioned but also the other way around. Are they preparing for the possibility that what happened to us could happen to them?
Ivan Grygoruk: As far as I know, because I communicate with foreign partners and have been involved in the energy sector for a long time, and I also participate in design work for various EU companies… we have become sought after precisely because of our experience. Let’s say, for any energy system, what we are experiencing now is not just about military risks; it’s about destruction or interruptions in the supply of a product or service as a result of some event. In peacetime, this could be weather resilience, for example. The two blackouts that Europe experienced this year were more related to weather resilience, cross-border electricity flows, and the generation structure in the EU. Our cause is different, but the potential consequences are similar, so to speak. Therefore, for forecasting the operating modes of an energy system, designing power installations, or modeling an optimal energy mix for the European Union, our valuable experience is now needed, not to mention military risks. The same risks can exist in peacetime in stable countries. We saw that people in a peaceful Europe are not ready for such challenges. The causes are different, but the consequences are the same. Therefore, our experience is extremely useful for the whole world, not just for the European Union. It will be written into the history of energy for the next 100 years, figuratively speaking. There are huge libraries, for example, on atomic energy at the IAEA. There is also the International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE) with its central office in Paris, and system operators from more than 100 countries are members of this council. In such international organizations, these types of various incidents are recorded, analyzed, and modeled, along with proposed solutions to problematic situations in the energy sector. This is expertise from the whole world for the whole world. And thus, precious experience has been preserved in such libraries for over 100 years. Every member of this international council has the right and access to such information to use in their daily work. I am confident that Ukraine’s experience will remain in world history.
Andriy Kulykov: Thank you very much for the conversation. You have been listening to a conversation on Hromadske Radio with Ivan Grygoruk, Vice President of the Energy Club and an analyst in the energy industry.
