65 years of dependence behind us: Baltic countries disconnected from the BRELL energy system

08.02.2025

Today, the Baltic power systems have finally disconnected from the BRELL network.

They will operate in isolation for 24 hours, and starting tomorrow, they will operate in synchrony with the European power grid.

More than 65 years of slavery have ended. A major event, no exaggeration.

A historical parallel suggests itself: in 1989, Poland disconnected from the Soviet network, and within two years this evil empire fell. Will the precedent be repeated?

At the same time, I propose that we analyze together the changes that will occur after the disconnection of the Baltic power networks from the BRELL ring.

First, about the changes for the Baltic countries.

First of all, this is energy security. The Baltic countries will reduce the risk of energy manipulation by Russia, which previously could use energy supplies as a political tool. In addition, the stability of electricity supply will increase due to integration with a more developed and reliable European power system. That is, the resilience of the Baltic power grid (BALTSO) to instantaneous loads/unloads will increase several times.

Secondly, electricity prices will change. In the short term, price fluctuations may occur due to adaptation to the new market model and the development of the balancing services market mechanism. However, in the long term, prices may decrease due to increased competition for consumers in the Baltic countries.

Thirdly, the deployment of new infrastructure projects will continue. In the focus of attention: the creation of new systems for energy balancing, including battery stations and other technologies to maintain frequency stability in the network. Of course, all investment costs will put pressure on electricity transmission tariffs.

It is noteworthy that Poland will become a key partner for the Baltic countries in the field of electricity supply, which will strengthen its position in Eastern Europe. In the long term, this influence will grow, but provided that new power lines are built and existing ones are modernized (for example, the Harmony Link project).

Now, regarding the aggressor. The disconnection of the Baltic countries from the BRELL energy ring weakens Russia’s economic, political, and geostrategic influence in the region. This will lead to a loss of revenue from electricity exports, the isolation of Kaliningrad, a decrease in the ability to influence neighboring countries, and an increase in the cost of maintaining its own energy system. Among other things, the loss of energy ties makes the aggressor more vulnerable to economic pressure from the EU and the US, since the Baltic countries are no longer dependent on Russian supplies. Therefore, it is possible that after the second half of February we may see increasing sanctions pressure on the aggressor.

If we break it down into main areas, the enemy will lose:

1. Political influence on the energy market and, accordingly, the economy of the Baltic countries.
2. Annual income from the sale of electricity at the level of 0.3 billion euros. It is important that a significant reduction in exports may force the aggressor to look for new markets or increase domestic consumption, which will affect tariff policy and, in the long term, social sentiment. At the same time, several billion will have to be spent on redesigning the power grid, because disconnection from BRELL reduces the scale of the Russian power system, which will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of its operation. At the same time, the aggressor will try to invest in the modernization and reorientation of energy flows.
3. A market for the sale of electricity from the Belarusian NPP, which will significantly reduce the economic profitability of this project. At the same time, the local power grid of the so-called Kaliningrad region will operate in isolated mode.