12.08.2025
Preparation for the autumn-winter period, in terms of the state and capabilities of the energy system and the situation in the energy market, was discussed during an online discussion on the Energy Club platform on August 12.
On the eve of the most difficult autumn-winter period in Ukraine’s history, the energy community faces unprecedented challenges. Large-scale damage to generating capacities, economic difficulties, and new market realities require maximum coordination and the search for unconventional solutions from all market participants.
Is the energy system ready for peak loads? What role do the recent changes in electricity market price caps play in ensuring stability? And what steps must the state and businesses take to get through the winter with minimal losses?
Diverse answers to these and other questions were voiced by representatives of key generating companies, market operators, leading experts, and members of parliament during a frank and professional conversation about the most pressing issues of preparing for the autumn-winter period.
“For three years now, there has been talk in Ukraine of an extremely difficult winter ahead, but until now, the state and the energy sector have successfully overcome all difficulties, even though no other country in the world has faced such challenges,” noted Maksym Nemchynov, Vice President of Energy Club. “This is why the decisions that have to be made are difficult and non-trivial. However, this year’s heating season, considering the enemy’s attacks on energy infrastructure, the destruction of generation and the gas transmission system (GTS), and the state of Ukraine’s power grid, will indeed be the most difficult in our country’s history. Problematic issues include the procurement and accumulation of sufficient natural gas reserves and coal supplies. Raising the price caps to ensure a stable electricity supply during the heating period is the right decision, but other steps are also needed, such as revising the Public Service Obligation (PSO) prices for natural gas for distributed generation,” stressed Maksym Nemchynov.
“The winter will be difficult, and Ukraine will not have enough gas reserves,” stated Viktoriia Hryb, Member of Parliament of Ukraine, member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Energy and Housing and Communal Services, and Head of the VR Subcommittee on Energy Security. In her opinion, price caps should be abolished for the normal functioning of the energy market. Manual control will lead to an increase in electricity prices. Regarding natural gas prices, if they are raised, the population and industry will not be able to pay the tariffs. “We need to work with European partners to compensate for the price difference, considering that Ukraine is fighting against the aggressor,” proposed Viktoriia Hryb. “District heating companies (Teplokomunenergo) are in a very difficult situation locally and may not be able to prepare for the heating season. The 4% of personal income tax (PIT) included in the Memorandum between the government and cities does not cover the difference in tariffs. The district heating companies have no funds for salaries or repairs. The only way out is to turn to international partners for help.”
“The energy sector is the second front, and if it is not protected, the country will have big problems,” the Member of Parliament emphasized.
“Revising the price caps does not mean an increase in the price, which is formed based on the balance of supply and demand. Last year and in the first half of this year, the price caps were old, but the prices were higher. Price caps allow for flexibility and balancing the energy system without using emergency assistance, which consumers pay for. Our electricity price is not the highest in Europe, perhaps only during peak hours. In the first 7 months of 2025, the wholesale price of electricity in Ukraine was only $1 higher than in Romania and Hungary. We need to introduce long-term contracts with a fixed price as soon as possible, which will allow the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) segment to be used exclusively for market balancing,” expressed his opinion Roman Bekuzarov, Deputy Commercial Director of D.TRADING.
Bohdan Sukhetsky, Acting Director General of PJSC Ukrhydroenergo, spoke about the situation at the company: “Generating capacities have suffered significant damage from enemy attacks, Ukrhydroenergo employees are working on their restoration, protection is being built, and equipment is being purchased. This year, the company, which provides consumers not only with electricity but also with water, has the lowest water reserve in recent decades and is trying not only to recover in unbalanced conditions but also to build up some reserves.” Regarding the price caps, the head’s position is unequivocal: “Ukrhydroenergo and Energoatom provide the PSO for the population, and they could have directed these funds to support Ukraine’s energy system. Therefore, price caps should only exist during certain hours. If we let the prices go, we won’t be able to calculate the cost of electricity in advance. We need to try to set not a peak, but a daily price. That is, prices need to be released gradually and liberalized throughout the day.”
“The increase in price caps has played a positive role—despite the capacity deficit, Ukraine has no power outage schedules,” emphasized Volodymyr Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs at the Razumkov Centre. “Raising the price caps does not imply an increase in the electricity price, which in that case would be UAH 6700 per MWh, although in July it was actually UAH 5000 per MWh. Ukraine does not have the highest, but an average European price for electricity—in winter. In summer, due to the use of renewable energy sources (RES), the price in European countries is slightly lower. We need to look not at the price on the Day-Ahead Market (DAM), but at the final price for the consumer. In Ukraine, it is currently €164 per MWh, while in Germany it is €257. Those who fight against market coupling are doing themselves a disservice—without it, it is impossible to conclude long-term contracts. The deficit of the State Budget of Ukraine is 40%, 75% of generation is lost, we must abandon the illusion of subsidizing industry. The best way is synchronization with the market and volatile prices.”
“In numerous discussions about the energy market’s operation, the opinion of the industrial consumer is missing, and there is no adequate platform for finding compromises,” believes Member of Parliament of Ukraine Oleksii Kucherenko, who entered the discussion with harsh criticism. “The NEURC (National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission) is not ready to become such a platform; the national regulator has systemic flaws, so we are waiting for the adoption of the relevant law. Energoatom controls 60% of the consumption volumes in the energy market. In 2024, its revenue was UAH 207 billion, while the cost of production was UAH 69 billion. The gross profit was UAH 138 billion. What other company operates in the market with a 300% profit? The pricing in the market is not competitive. Is the Antimonopoly Committee of Ukraine capable of analyzing the situation in the energy market—monopolization, the PSO mechanism, growing debts, the financial state of Ukrenergo, the distribution of funds? No one has ever done a comprehensive analysis. We will survive the winter—the energy workers are operating on a tactical level, and partners will help financially. But in market regulation, it’s a complete fiasco.”
“The key to a successful heating season is the availability of gas in storage facilities. The real cost of gas produced in Ukraine is up to UAH 2.5 per cubic meter. Consumers pay UAH 7.96 per cubic meter. With a need for 13 billion cubic meters of gas for the heating season, Ukraine currently has a deficit of 5 billion cubic meters. An audit of Naftogaz is needed.”
Market liberalization, finding a “golden mean” in its mechanisms, and appealing to European partners and donors for help in protecting the Ukrainian energy system—these were the conclusions on the state’s next steps made by the participants of the online discussion. Based on its results, proposals will be formulated for the Ministry of Energy and other relevant institutions.
